Even as the economic recovery plods ahead, many American consumers are refusing to come along. They're not spending freely -- and they have no plans to.
Many of them have steady income. They aren't saddled by high debts. They don't fear losing their jobs. Yet despite recent gains, they've lost so much household wealth that they're far more cautious about spending than before the recession.
Their behavior suggests that the Great Recession may have bred a new frugality that will endure well into the recovery. And because consumers fuel about 70 percent of the economy, their tightfisted habits means the rebound could stay unusually sluggish.
They had in mind people like Marjorie Feldman of suburban St. Louis, who retired three years ago as a systems analyst for a utility company. The stock investments in her retirement account have sunk 15 percent from 2007. The value of her home is down 20 percent.
"I had retired assuming I'd make money" off the investments, said Feldman, who's in her early 60's. "I just don't feel as confident in the economy, and I never will again. I won't spend money the way I used to."
Feldman's husband works full time in academia. She has a part time job preparing tax returns at H&R Block. But her prime earning years are behind her. "I don't think it will ever get back to where it was before," she said of her nest egg. "I won't spend money the way I used to."
To be sure, many shoppers, especially the wealthy, are buying into the recovery. Partly on the strength of consumer spending, the economy emerged from recession last year and has been growing steadily, if moderately, since. Major retailers logged solid sales in March. Employers have begun to add jobs, including a net increase of 162,000 in March. The stock market has risen 70 percent from its low in March 2009.
Yet many who became penny-pinchers during the recession are in no mood to start shopping again with abandon for clothes, cars and home additions. They've discovered the peace of mind that comes with rebuilding savings, shopping more prudently and learning to live with less..
Interviews with ordinary Americans suggest a new frugality endures even though consumer spending has risen for five straight months and retail sales for three. In the AP's new quarterly survey, a majority of economists agreed that a new frugality will persist even as the recovery gains firmer footing.
"Consumers will not run up multiple credit cards to their limits, and when buying a house the objective will not be to get the maximum square footage for which they can afford the payment. A higher savings rate will be in place for several years."
Jeff Thredgold, an economist at Thredgold Economic Associates, predicts "less impress-my-neighbor-type spending" in coming years. He isn't worried about losing his job in business development at an information technology company. What's led him to cut back spending is the sunken value of his condominium. He bought it in 2005 for about $270,000.
"I doubt right now it's cracking $100,000," Flowers said.
Household net worth -- the value of assets like homes, checking accounts and investments minus debts like mortgages and credit cards -- has risen for three straight quarters. But economists say consumers would need a stronger and prolonged increase in wealth to lead them to ratchet up spending. Net worth would have to rise an additional 21 percent just to get back to its pre-recession peak of $65.9 trillion.
Some economists put their hopes for the economy in the rich, who are spending more freely than the rest of the population. They hold out hope that this will encourage more hiring and stimulate spending by the less wealthy. More spending could increase companies' revenue, which allow them to boost hiring and pay. And that would lead their employees to spend more.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. returned to a first-quarter profit as more travelers vacationed on its ships and spent more money on board. And makers of luxury goods are benefiting from a release of pent-up demand for jewelry, watches and high-end furnishings.
High-end retailers have reported blowout results. Nordstrom's revenue in stores open at least one year jumped 16.8 percent last month. Saks' surged 12.7 percent.
McClaren Automotive has announced it will debut a $200,000 sports car in the U.S. next year. And business is picking up faster at high-end hotels than at mid-priced and budget hotels.
Whether spending by the wealthy will cause the less-well-off to spend freely, too, remains unclear. For now, though, many people have embraced a more frugal approach to spending.
Or maybe they've just learned to go without.
Jan Iris Smith, 57, and her husband of Cabin John, Md., put off furniture and clothing purchases after the stock market's collapse in early 2009. "We were counting on our income from our investments," said Smith, a psychotherapist whose husband is retired. "We just stopped pretending everything was going to be OK anytime soon."
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3 comments:
I'm sympathetic to these people. I mean what would you expect? Obama is raising taxes and eliminating benefits for everyone who isn't outright poor.
Personally, we're not well-off, but comfortable. What did we do with our savings recently? We didn't go out and spend it - we paid off the mortgage - exactly along the lines this article is discussing. Why should we loosen the purse strings and spend it? Why would I want to support an economy where the president is robbing from everyone and redistributing to those further down the food chain? And, let's be honest - most of these folks having difficulties with their mortgage had no business getting a house/mortgage in the first place - so why shouldn't they be responsible and give it up? If you don't make the monthly payment on your car, they come and take it - why is it any different for a house? No handouts. Nobody paid my mortgage for me - so they get rewarded for failure? What sense does that make? Now they want to extend unemployment benefits beyond 99 weeks? What kind of nonsense is that? Why go back to work when you can be paid for being a couch potato, sleeping in until noon, and wasting your day away? Where's the incentive? Why are taxpayers putting up with it? You don't work, you don't get paid. Simply pathetic.
If I was handed a pink slip tomorrow it wouldn't bother me much. I'd get a nice severance package, in addition to a nice pension and hefty 401k distribution. And you know what, then I'd go and fight for my 99 or more weeks of unemployment benefits. I'd love a 2 year paid vacation.
This is Obama's last term in office. Most folks realize the mistake made by putting this man in the White House. His objective, along with his Democrats in the House, is to turn the United States of America into the United Socialists of America. It's not going to happen.
Many are really taking hold of their money because they are just afraid that the economic crisis may worsen.
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